WTPS22 PGTW 061200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051121ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 051130). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 161.5E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 22.1S 162.7E, APPROXIMATELY 209 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
FULLY-EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA 
(NWWW) INDICATES WEAK WINDS WITH A WIND SHIFT FROM 270 DEGREES TO 10 
DEGREES, ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY DECREASE IN PRESSURE FROM 1005 MB TO 
1003 MB OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS, 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW ONLY A 
SMALL WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF, GFS, 
AND GEFS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, AS CURRENT PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS ALREADY STARTING THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.  MODELS GENERALLY 
FORECAST 92P TO FURTHER ELONGATE AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SOUTH 
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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