ABPW10 PGTW 060600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/060600Z-070600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.5S 161.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.7S 162.0E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC), WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT 
OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (NWWW) INDICATES WEAK WINDS WITH A WIND 
SHIFT FROM 270 DEGREES TO 10 DEGREES, ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY DECREASE 
IN AIR PRESSURE FROM 1005 MB TO 1003 MB OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS, MODERATE EQUATORWARD 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28 C. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS SHOW ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH THE ECMWF, GFS, AND GEFS BEING 
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE. DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE, AS CURRENT PHASE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS ALREADY 
STARTING THE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION.  MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST 92P TO 
FURTHER ELONGATE AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY THE SOUTH PACIFIC 
CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 
051130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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