WTPS21 PGTW 051130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P) REISSUED//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/051121ZFEB2025//
REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3S 161.3E TO 24.0S 166.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5S 161.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
HE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 161.5E IS 
NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.5S 161.5E, APPROXIMATELY 298 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF 
NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS 
A 050758Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT, ELONGATED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE 
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. AT THE MOMENT GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR 
DEVELOPMENT, AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IF THE 
AREA OF CONVECTION (92P) DOES NOT REACH WARNING CRITERIA IT WILL BE OVER 
TAKEN BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
061130Z.
//
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