ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041121ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 05FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.3S 174.1E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD 
TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTPS31 PGTW 050300) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.1S 161.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9S 161.5E, APPROXIMATELY 308 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS 
A COMPACT, BUT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AS WELL AS PROMINENT 
CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 042256 
ASCAT METOP-C PASS INDICATES STRONG 24-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A 
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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