ABPW10 PGTW 041130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041130Z-050600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041121ZFEB2025/
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
AMPN/REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.4S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.0S 160.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 409 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY 
(EIR) DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER.  A 
KNES DVORAK INTENSITY OF 2.0 REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS WIND DATA 
(30KTS) AS WELL AS A 4MB REDUCTION IN PRESSURE OVER THE LAST 5 HOURS 
FURTHER SUPPORTING THE DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG, 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
92P WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK IN A 
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH//
NNNN