ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/040600Z-050600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/040151ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 04FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.4S 169.3E, APPROXIMATELY 183 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 040300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.0S 159.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 160.6E, APPROXIMATELY 459 NM 
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.  A 
PARTIAL 040110Z OSCAT3 PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE 
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE WITH BANDS OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P 
IS IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
THIS IS OFFSET BY MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,  GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY 
CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY 
DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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