ABPW10 PGTW 031900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/031900Z-040600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/031351ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 21.0S 168.0E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 031500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8S 159.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.0S 159.8E, APPROXIMATELY 812 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC.  A 
PARTIAL 031742Z METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS STRONG 25-30 
KNOT WIND FIELD IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE WITH 
BANDS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 92P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND EXHIBITING RADIAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92P WILL 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND TRACK IN A 
GENERAL SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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