ABPW10 PGTW 030600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/030600Z-040600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030154ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03FEB25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.7S 167.8E, APPROXIMATELY 127 NM NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 030300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 158.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 159.5E, APPROXIMATELY 537 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS BUILDING OVER THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE, EXPOSING 
THE NOW FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS, MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 
29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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