ABPW10 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/021500Z-030600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021354ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTH OF NOUMEA, NEW 
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 021500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 158.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.1S 
158.9E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-
EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 
C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, ALONG AN EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WITH GFS BEING THE MOST AGRESSIVE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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