ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/020551ZFEB2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.5S 164.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0S 164.2E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC), JUST NORTH OF NEW CALEDONIA, WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO THE 
NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 
KNOTS, STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS INDICATE 
WEAK DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK AND A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL TC INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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