ABIO10 PGTW 012130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/012130Z-021800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011952ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF C IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.6S 60.8E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 01FEB25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6S 101.3E, APPROXIMATELY 328 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 012100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(2) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.9S 119.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 118.9E, APPROXIMATELY 293 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW 
(20-25 KNOTS) IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A 
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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