ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011351ZFEB2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REFS B AND C ARE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 01FEB25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.6S 60.8E, APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6S 103.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 102.5E, APPROXIMATELY 378 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE 
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9S 119.1E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW 
(20-25 KNOTS) IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A 
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF C (WTXS21 PGTW 010200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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