ABPW10 PGTW 010600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/010600Z-020600ZFEB2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.9S 147.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 145.4E, APPROXIMATELY 33 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 96P TO HAVE MOVED OVER LAND WITH LITTLE SIGNS 
OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BESIDES A TROUGH OVER THE CAPE YORK 
PENINSULA OF AUSTRALIA. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CAIRNS (YBCS) 
SHOWS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, 
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PRESSURE TO 998 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
OF 5-15 KNOTS, GOOD POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C JUST OFFSHORE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE 
CIRCULATION TO LAND IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF 96P. GFS SUGGESTS A SHORT WINDOW OF INTENSIFICATION BACK OVER 
WATER, BUT QUICKLY MOVES BACK OVER LAND. ECMWF, ON THE OTHER HAND, 
SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.6S 
165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKLY-
DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. A 312238Z ASCAT METOP-C 
REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS VERY ELONGATED IN THE NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST 
DIRECTION WITH SOME ELEVATED (25-30 KTS) WINDS IN THE EASTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES, NEAR VANUATU. A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
BAUERFIELD (NVVV) SHOWS A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN AIR PRESSURE TO 1003 MB OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS, 
WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 30-40 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 28-29 C. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAK DEVELOPMENT WITH A SOUTHWARD TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FOLLOWING 
24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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