ABIO10 PGTW 010230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/010230Z-011800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZJAN2025//
REF/C/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010152ZFEB25//
REF/D/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB25//
NARR/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FINAL WARNING. REFS C AND D ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 31JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 34.1S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 836 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 312100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 103.9E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION FORMING ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING 
ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE 
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW 
(20-25 KNOTS) IS POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE 
CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A 
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO HIGH.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) AND 2.B.(2) 
TO HIGH.//
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