WTXS21 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 010200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.3S 119.7E TO 14.4S 116.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 119.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICT A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) DIRECTLY 
OVER THE CENTER. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW (20-25 KNOTS) IS 
POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND HAS BEGAN TO 
WRAP ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E.//
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