WTXS22 PGTW 010200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99S)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010153ZFEB25//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 010200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
135 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 104.3E TO 16.5S 97.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 010200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 103.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 104.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 103.9E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICT A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING ON THE 
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA 
OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL 
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
020200Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 119.5E.//
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