ABIO10 PGTW 312130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/312130ZJAN2025-011800ZFEB2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311351ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311951ZJAN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.  REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FINAL WARNING //
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9S 65.6E, APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 311500) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 31JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 34.1S 51.9E, APPROXIMATELY 836 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 312100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.4S 106.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 104.8E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH FLARING 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. A 311453Z ASCAT 
METOP-C 25KM PARTIAL PASS SHOWS 15-20 KNOT NORTH-WESTERLY WINDS ALONG 
THE 12S LATITUDE THAT ARE HELPING 99S GAIN MORE MOMENTUM. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA 
OF LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TAKE 
A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.1S 121.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 120.6E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION OVERTOP. A STRONG BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW (20-25 KNOTS) 
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO HELP 
INVEST 90S GAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED PARA. 2.A.(2) WITH 12S FINAL 
WARNING INFORMATION.//
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