WTXS32 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WARNING NR 006 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 311800Z --- NEAR 34.1S 51.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 25 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 34.1S 51.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 38.4S 55.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 312100Z POSITION NEAR 35.2S 52.9E. 31JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME RAGGED, ELONGATED AND FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS SHEARED 100+ NM SOUTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY, A COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS TRAILING THE LLC TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, HELD HIGHER THAN AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES, IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 311509Z SAR PASS. ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 12S HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM BY WITH A COLD-CORE LOW AND AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 311800Z IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS 12 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN