ABIO10 PGTW 310800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310800ZJAN2025-311800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZJAN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1S 67.3E, APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 29.5S 46.8E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.5S 106.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 105.7E, APPROXIMATELY 538 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW LEVEL ROTATION WITH DEEP 
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. STRONG WESTERLY 
FLOW ALONG THE 10S LATITUDE ARE HELPING 99S GAIN MORE MOMENTUM IN THE 
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS 
REVEALS A WIND FIELD OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF 
THE SEMICIRCLE APPROXIMATELY 150NM FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH 
AREAS OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 99S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND IS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO 
MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND 
TAKE A GENERAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S 
120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF 
ELONGATED ROTATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG 
WESTERLY FLOW ALONG 10S TO 11S LATITUDE IS HELPING INVEST 90S GAIN 
MORE MOMENTUM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. A 310124Z PARTIAL METOP-B 
ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN AREA OF 15-20 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING 
TO WRAP INTO THE WEAKLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. APPROXIMATELY 
100NM TO THE NORTH THERE IS A WIND FIELD OF STRONG 20-25 KNOT WINDS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 90S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(15 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM 
AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2).//
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