ABIO10 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310300ZJAN2025-311800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310151ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/301951ZJAN2025//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 31JAN25 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.1S 67.3E, APPROXIMATELY 619 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 310300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) AT 30JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (ELVIS) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 29.5S 46.8E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
50 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 302100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 14.3N 
106.8E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 302304Z WSFM 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED 
RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 
99S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99S WILL GENERALLY TRACK 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 
25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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