ABPW10 PGTW 290600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/290600Z-300600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.9S 145.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 10 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DIFFUSE 
CONVECTION. A 282246Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THE LLC IS NO LONGER 
CLOSED WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLIES FLOWING ON SHORE NOW. A SURFACE 
OBSERVATION FROM CAIRNS AIRPORT (YBCS) SHOWS THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY 
INCOME OF SHIFTING 210-070 WINDS OF 3-10 KNOTS AND PRESSURE OF 1004-
1007 MB OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 
10-15 KNOTS, GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
PORTRAY GRADUAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COAST, SOUTH OF CAIRNS, 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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