ABIO10 PGTW 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/282200Z-291800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 25.3S 43.6E, APPROXIMATELY 113 NM SOUTH OF TOLIARA, 
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND 
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS 92S WITH CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION. A 281916Z ASCAT-B 
PASS REVEALS WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH-WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE LLC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY MODERATE TO HIGH 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25KTS) A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO 
THE CIRCULATION, STRONG WESTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY RELATIVELY 
WARM (26-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
IN CHARACTERIZING 92S AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH BROAD AND ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD.  IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH 
A BROAD AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND CAN POTENTIALLY INTENSIFY TO A 
35-KNOT SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS  
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(2) AS A LOW.////
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