ABIO10 PGTW 281800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/281800Z-
291800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
24.2S 42.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.3S 43.0E, APPROXIMATELY 67 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF TOLIARA, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS 92S WITH AN EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
AND FLARING CONVECTION BECOMING DENSE AND PERSISTENT ALONG THE EASTERN 
PERIPHERY. A 280741Z ASCAT-B SCATTEROMETER SHOWS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION 
BECOMING ORGANIZED. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, 
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT SUPPORTED BY LOW (10-15 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES 
WITHIN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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