ABIO10 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/281500Z-281800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28JAN25 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 11.7S 76.2E, APPROXIMATELY 352 NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, AND 
HAD TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 281500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.3S 76.0E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE 
PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.2S 
42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92S WITH AN ELONGATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR 
WITHIN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM STALLS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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