ABIO10 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/280830Z-281800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280821ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), 
SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS IS THE 
MOST AGGRESSIVE, DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
280830) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 24.2S 
42.1E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92S WITH AN ELONGATED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92S IS 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR 
WITHIN THE WESTERN SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS 
IN AGREEMENT ON A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM STALLS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN 
MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:  UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO
HIGH AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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