WTXS21 PGTW 280830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0S 76.2E TO 16.2S 71.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280830Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.3S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.3S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 317 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 C), SLIGHTLY 
OFFSET BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS PORTRAY GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. GFS IS THE MOST 
AGGRESSIVE, DEPICTING GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280830Z.//
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