ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 
145.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY 21 NM EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW PRESSURE AREA EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST NORTH OF 
CAIRNS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CAIRNS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ARE SHOWING 
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENTLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR THE PAST 
THREE HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED ENVIRONMENT. 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM SHOWS LIMITED 
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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