ABPW10 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280300Z-280600ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280221ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S 
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 58 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH FLARING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST NORTH OF CAIRNS. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEEDS CONSISTENTLY OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH A 
272100Z OBSERVATION OF 29 KNOT WINDS GUSTING AT 34 KNOTS WITH A DROPPING 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED ENVIRONMENT. 
WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED, ENSEMBLE 
SUPPORT IS STRONGER AND MORE CONCISE WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A 
SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 280230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED HIGH AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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