WTPS21 PGTW 280230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 145 NM RADIUS OF 16.1S 147.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280230Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 145.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.9S 
145.6E, APPROXIMATELY 58 NM NORTH OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING AND 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMBEDDED UNDERNEATH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG 
THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, JUST NORTH OF CAIRNS. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS FROM LOW ISLES LIGHTHOUSE ARE SHOWING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
CONSISTENTLY OVER 25 KNOTS FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH A 272100Z 
OBSERVATION OF 29 KNOT WINDS GUSTING AT 34 KNOTS WITH A DROPPING SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT MOVING FORWARD WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, VERY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND A MODERATE 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT IN A MOISTURE-FILLED ENVIRONMENT. WHILE 
DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED, ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS 
STRONGER AND MORE CONCISE WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A SOUTHEASTWARD 
TRACK ALONG THE COASTLINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
290230Z.
//
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