ABIO10 PGTW 271800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/271800Z-
281800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4S 76.6E, APPROXIMATELY 342 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 271330Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO 
ORGANIZE AROUND THE LLC THAT HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) 
SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S 
WILL GENERALLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 78.7E HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND THE LLC ILL-DEFINED AND IS 
DOWNGRADED FROM LOW TO INVEST ONLY AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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