ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
21.6S 41.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.1S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 358 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 261524Z SMMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY LOW 
(5-10KTS).  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 92S WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE SAME TRACK HEADING 
SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 78.2E, APPROXIMATELY 449 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
261312Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH, FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO 
ORGANIZE AROUND A MORE SYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO 
HIGH (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY DRIFFT WESTWARD OVER THE 24 
HOURSBEFORE ALTERING COURSE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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