ABIO10 PGTW 260700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/260700Z-261800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 464 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF ROTATION, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF 
VORTICITY ON THE FRINGES. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION LIES IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST 
PORTION OF THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROF. A 260107Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS FRAGMENTED AND ELONGATED BANDS OF 
CONVECTION FLOWING AROUND THE ASSESSED LLCC, PRIMARILY TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. ALSO, A PARTIAL METOP-C ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS A 
WIND FIELD OF 20-25 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST, WITH AREAS OF 
INCREASED 25-30 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC. 
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF THE 
CIRCULATION ARE REPORTING WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 KNOTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD 
EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST 93S OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS WESTWARD. THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.7S 40.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.6S 41.0E, APPROXIMATELY 364 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 251326Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA 
OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE SAME 
TRAJECTORY, TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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