ABIO10 PGTW 251800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/251800Z-261800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
20.1S 38.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 40.2E, APPROXIMATELY 307 NM 
EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 251538Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING 
CONVECTION, WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 92S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, WARM (20-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AIDED BY LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
92S WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF THE MOZAMBIQUE 
CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.2S 80.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.1S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 555 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 251326Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF 
FLARING CONVECTION, WITH AN ASYMMETRIC LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH 
(25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT INVEST 93S WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE SAME TRAJECTORY, TRACKING 
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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