ABIO10 PGTW 250030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/250030Z-251800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 20.1S 
38.8E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM EAST OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241313Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICT AN AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH A POORLY ORGANIZED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 
INVEST 92S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND LOW VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (10-15 KTS). GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE THAT INVEST 92S WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ASSEMBLE OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2S 
80.5EE, APPROXIMATELY 539 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241231Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE 
DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION, WITH FRAGMENTED CONVECTION 
BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 93S IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WEAK POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY A SHARP GRADIENT OF HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93S WILL 
GENERALLY CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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