ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/171800Z-
181800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 33.7S 54.8E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, AND HAD TRACKED 
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.8S 120.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 120.1E, APPROXIMATELY 383 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
AN 171238Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT FRAGMENTED CLOUD 
BANDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A CONSOLIDATING 
LLCC ALONG THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH FLARING CONVECTION BUILDING OVER 
THE CENTER. A 171346Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE REVEALS NORTHWESTERLY 
WINDS INTENSIFYING AS THEY APPROACH THE COASTLINE AND TURN WESTWARD INTO 
THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-32C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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