ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z-
171800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160751ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 28.9S 44.7E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, 
AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 
125 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 160900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0S 112.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.2S 112.6E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 161318Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA 
OF CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH DEEP CYCLING 
CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 
161408Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS 
CONSOLIDATING INTO A MORE SYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
SHEAR (15-20KTS), MODERATE DIVERGENCE ALOFT, BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL 
VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE 
SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AND POTENTIALLY INTERACT WITH OR MERGE WITH A SEPARATE 
CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA BEFORE ULTIMATELY 
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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