WTXS21 PGTW 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 97S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZJAN25//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 100200). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.5E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 499 NM NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND SEPARATED FROM ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), 
WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO 97S CAUSING THE 
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT TO DECREASING. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

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