ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
101800Z-111800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100751ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100151ZJAN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 10JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5S 57.1E, APPROXIMATELY 396 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 100900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.3E, APPROXIMATELY 501 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 092318Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ DEPICTS LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15 KNOTS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE 
RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WHILE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL GALE FORCE 
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 100200) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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