WTXS21 PGTW 100200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 17.9S 102.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 102000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.5E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.7S 103.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 495 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 092318Z SSMIS F-17 91 GHZ DEPICTS LOW LEVEL 
CLOUDS TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(10-15 KNOTS), WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE RADIAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WHILE 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A SMALL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL GALE FORCE 
INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
110200Z.//
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