ABIO10 PGTW 092130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/092130Z-101800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/091951ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.6S 60.1E, APPROXIMATELY 422 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, 
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 092100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 60.1E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 
2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.5S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 103.6E, APPROXIMATELY 475 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE 
CENTER. A 091451Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A BELT OF 25-30 KNOT 
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MARGINAL 
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL 
WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS.//
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