ABIO10 PGTW 091800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/091800Z-101800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082051ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.0S 62.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6S 59.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTER. A 082302Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUD LINES TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE 
REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.6S 103.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 433 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION 
BUILDING OVER THE CENTER. A 091451Z ASCAT METOP-B 25KM IMAGE DEPICTS A 
BELT OF 25-30 KNOT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE OVERALL WITH CONSISTENT DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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