ABIO10 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/090300Z-091800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082100ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 
082100)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE 
CENTER. A 082302Z SSMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL 
CLOUD LINES TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND 
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.6S 
103.5E, APPROXIMATELY 397 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIAL EXPOSED LLCC THAT IS 
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS), WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD OUTFLOW POLEWARD ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS SHOW AN ASYMMETRICAL WIND FIELD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT, 
HOWEVER THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW 
AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(2).//
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