ABIO10 PGTW 082130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/082130Z-091800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/082100ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 082100)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 62.8E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 081650Z 
METOP-B AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES 
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR 
WITHIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND 
DETERMINISTIC ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
082100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
FOR INVEST 94S.//
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