WTXS21 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072100ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 072100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.9S 69.1E TO 14.2S 58.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 68.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 71.1E IS NOW LOCATED 15.0S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICT A 
CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH DEEP FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A 081650Z 
METOP-B AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES 
TIGHTLY WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS), WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR 
WITHIN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND 
DETERMINISTIC ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
092100Z.//
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