ABIO10 PGTW 081800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/081800Z-
091800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/072051ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.6S 76.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 71.1E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM SOUTH 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 071753Z 
GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE 
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM 
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND A MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN 
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 072100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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