ABPW10 PGTW 080600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/080600Z-090600ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
22.4S 168.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 166.5W, APPROXIMATELY 598 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD ELONGATED AREA OF A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND A 080319Z SSMIS F18 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 080502Z METOP-B SCATTEROMETERY PASS 
REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERN 
PORTION OF THE SEMICIRCLE. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO INTRUDE AND BEGIN TO 
WRAP MORE INTO THE LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AS WELL. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, 
MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AREAS OF COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (22-24C) WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. GLOBAL 
MODELS LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT INVEST 96P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER, GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM DISAGREE WHETHER 
THE SYSTEM WILL FURTHER DEVELOP AND REACH WARNING THRESHOLD. JTWC HAS 
ASSESSED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL AND WILL BECOME MORE BAROCLINIC 
AS 96P TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE JET TO THE SOUTH. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS 
DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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