WTXS21 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S) //
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.6S 77.4E TO 14.5S 64.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.6S 76.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 14.1S 
77.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 76.0E, APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARICA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
071753Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL A 071628Z METOP-C AMSU-B 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING AND 
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION CONSISTENTLY BUILDING OVER THE CENTER OF THE 
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
OF 94S WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (27-28C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY, 94S ALSO HAS WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALOFT TO ASSIST IN DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL 
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE 
TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
082100Z.
//
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