ABIO10 PGTW 061800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/061800Z-
071800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.2S 82.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.3S 80.8E, APPROXIMATELY 628 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS 
WELL AS A 061312Z SSMIS F16 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER COUPLED WITH 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING ALONG THE NORTHER PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA REVEAL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 
69.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6S 70.2E, APPROXIMATELY 137 NM WEST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD 
DISORGANIZED LLC WITH CYCLING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (15-20KTS). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE LITTLE 
DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS MAINTAIN 
DEVELOPMENT WITH A NORTH EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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