ABIO10 PGTW 051800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/051800Z-
061800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.9S 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.7S 85.5E, APPROXIMATELY 680 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION AND 
WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-
10KTS), WARM SST (28C) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC 
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE AREA OF CONVECTION (94S) 
WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 
65.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 68.2E, APPROXIMATELY 251 NM WEST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED 
LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO 
MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS) OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE CURRENTLY NOT AS PROMINENT ON DETERMINISTIC 
MODELS, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN