ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/041800Z-
051800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.5S 96.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.9S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 041552Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, AND ELONGATED LLCC WITH 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG WITH A WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE NORTHEAST 
OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28C). GLOBAL 
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (94S) WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.5S 61.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3S 65.9E, APPROXIMATELY 791 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 041342Z SSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT A WEAKLY DEFINED LLCC WITH 
DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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